Age, education, and income[ edit ] Rates of voting in the U. Presidential Election by income Rates in voting in the U.
I've hacked this out with typos and all so you can enjoy! I've tried to be true to the difference-in-difference approach I use to make forecasting. Since Nate Silver has thrown down a gauntlet on the value of early voting analyses, I note that with the exception of Arizona's Senate election, the early vote is generally giving a similar signal as the poll modeling from In that one race, the poll averages suggest a Sinema lead, whereas the early vote favors McSally.
I quibble with the poll averages as to who is leading in Nevada and the size of the Florida lead, but these differences are small and not particularly meaningful when the total error of these estimates are accounted for.
Some may come away from this analysis that the early voting doesn't provide any information about an election. I think quite the contrary, naturally. Consider that I've come to the judgement below based solely on an analysis of the early vote.
No expensive polls were conducted that probably cost a combined million or so dollars in the states I analyze. I just analyzed data that was produced as a part of election administration.
For the most part, the high rent expensive poll averaging method and the low rent early vote method come to the same conclusions.
We'll see if we're both right or wrong. I believe that polling serves as an important source of information, so I am not dismissive of polls or poll averaging. There is one other valuable piece of information the early vote has provided leading into this election besides who is leading: I heard much at the start of the early voting period that the historic high levels of early voting for a midterm election were just "cannibalization" -- that voters were just casting their ballots earlier.
This error was laid to rest when Nevada and Texas surpassed their total vote in their early vote alone, and other states have had historic numbers that look like a hybrid between a midterm and a presidential election. Perhaps all will fall apart on Election Day and polling places will be ghost towns.
The cannibalization crowd has consistently said that early voting would fall off, but that did not happen. The most likely scenario is that voting will continue as it normally does and carry through to Election Day. Since casual pundits make gross mis-characterizations about how myself and others analyze early voting data, I lead with a long explainer.
If you just want the forecasts, scroll to the bottom. What is "Early Voting"? I broadly call all forms of voting prior to the election early voting. There are several different flavors of early voting, and the distinctions are blurred across states upon close inspection.
There are states with mail balloting of various guises - no-excuse absentee voting, permanent absentee status where registered voters can request to always vote-by-mail, and all vote-by-mail states and localities, where all registered voters automatically receive a mail ballot.
There are states with in-person early voting where voters can cast ballots in-person at special polling places prior to Election Day.
Unlike Election Day polling places, anyone may vote at any of the available early voting locations offered within their community. States may mix these early voting options.
For example, although Colorado is an vote-by-mail state, election officials also offer in-person early voting, and even permit eligible persons to register and vote. North Carolina has excuse-required absentee voting, but offers in-person early voting.
Florida has no-excuse absentee voting with a form of semi-permanent absentee ballot status good for two general elections and offers in-person early voting.
I sometimes receive complaints that I refer to the "early vote" in a state that has excuse-required absentee voting. Yes, states may have legal definitions that do not specifically reference in-person early voting.
I find these distinctions not particularly meaningful in the big picture. Some Virginia localities even open temporary satellite election offices to manage the demand for their excuse-required absentee ballots.
Virginia's excuses are fairly expansive compared to some other excuse-required states, so in practice Virginia looks more like a state with in-person early voting than a state with excuse-required absentee voting.
A few of the remaining excuse-absentee ballot states also have lenient excuses, with three allowing absentee voting to all persons over a certain age. These states have functionally no-excuse absentee voting for older people. If one want to get lost in the definitions, strictly speaking, Georgia does not have in-person early voting, they have in-person absentee voting, of which more than 1.
Rather than dwell in the minutia of these definitions, I just call all voting that takes place before an election "early".
Early Voting Trends In-person early voting existed at the country's founding. The election used to extend several days to permit persons living in remote areas to make the journey to a courthouse to cast their vote in-person.Voter turnout in the United States fluctuates in national elections.
In recent elections, about 60% of the voting eligible population votes during presidential election years, and about 40% votes during midterm elections. Gov Political Participation. Chp 8. STUDY. In a typical presidential election, over sixty percent of registered voters in America will In the United States, voter turnout is heavily skewed toward higher status persons in professional, managerial and other white-collar occupations.
T. United States Presidential Primary Elections, A Handbook of Election Statistics Mapping of presidential election returns that provides a systematic and comprehensive analysis of the vote at the county, state, and national levels. Dubin, Michael J.
United States Presidential Elections, The Official Results. In every presidential election since , young voters between the States. According to Census Bureau estimates, the noncitizen population in the United States has grown to over 22 million people.8 Voting: An Analysis of Presidential Elections, –”.
The United States presidential election in Virginia took place on November 7, , and was part of the United States presidential election. Voters chose 13 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, . Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida who runs the United States Election Project, estimates turnout as a share of the “voting-eligible population” by subtracting noncitizens and ineligible felons from the voting-age population and adding eligible overseas voters.